Researchers: Firms Should Reconsider Value of Government Contracts
Is it profit or loss when it comes to government contracts?
Conventional wisdom suggests that companies contracting with the government enjoy long-lasting financial windfalls, but new research in the Journal of Business Logistics suggests the arrangement is not as valuable as many firms might think.
While the government contracts signal legitimacy for the winning bidders and bring in short-term financial returns, contracting ultimately can lead to long-term performance declines for companies, according to researchers at and two other schools.
Government contracting is a lucrative business, particularly for firms in the aerospace, defense and high-tech industries. The United States government spent $6.27 trillion contracts in 2022 alone, making it the world鈥檚 largest buyer, according to .
The researchers studied 198 publicly traded manufacturing companies in the U.S., compiling data from three different data sets over an 11-year period.
Researchers then tested their hypotheses using various statistical methodologies, finding that a higher return on assets from government contracts increases initially, then erodes over time and leads to a drop in market value for firms.
鈥淭he general perception is that entering into a contract with the government has an infinitely positive financial upside,鈥 said , Ph.D., an associate professor of supply chain management with 糖心Vlog鈥檚 . 鈥淥ur results show that there certainly is a positive impact in the short term, increasing a firm鈥檚 returns. But in the long run, the administrative demands and complexities of these public-private partnerships ameliorate these gains, ultimately resulting in a decline in market value.鈥
Carnovale partnered on the study with Ellie C. Falcone, Ph.D., of the University of Oklahoma, and Brian Fugate, Ph.D., and Brent Williams, Ph.D., of the University of Arkansas.
One way to mitigate the negative effects is to partner with other companies that have substantial government contracting experience, according to the researchers, who found that the partnership can increase short-term benefits and limit losses.
The study鈥檚 findings are particularly timely, given the Biden Administration鈥檚 discussions of infrastructure, green energy and various large-scale spending bills that will necessarily involve private firms, Carnovale said.
鈥淐ompanies should consider the overall picture, not just the value and the initial upside of the potential contract,鈥 he said.
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